Business
Britain’s economy won’t reach pre-pandemic size for at least two years: Reuters Poll
LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy will not fully recover from its current historic downturn for at least two years, a Reuters poll of economists found, but there is only a slim chance the Bank of England will use negative interest rates to boost the upswing.
Britain has suffered the highest death toll from the novel coronavirus in Europe, leading to criticism of the government’s response to the pandemic.
Last quarter, when a lockdown to quell the spread of the virus was at its tightest, the economy shrank a record 20.4%. But as many restrictions have been lifted, it was expected to expand 15.1% this quarter, the Aug. 14-19 poll showed.
“The severity of the slump was chiefly a by-product of the very long lockdown in the UK, necessitated by the government’s laissez-faire attitude in the early days of the pandemic, which meant the virus spread more widely than in other countries,” said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Earlier this month the BoE said the economy would not recover to its pre-pandemic size until the end of 2021, but 20 of 23 economists who responded to an extra question said it would be at least two years before that happened. Only three said within two years.
After contracting 9.7% this year – more than most of its peers and more than the 9.1% forecast last month – the economy will expand 6.2% in 2021, the poll of nearly 70 economists predicted. In a worst case scenario, it will contract 14.2% this year.
“Unlike BoE chief economist Andy Haldane, who thinks it is now time to see the economic glass as ‘half-full’, recent data outturns have made us more pessimistic about the lasting economic impact,” said Elizabeth Martins at HSBC.
To support the economy the government has ramped up spending to record amounts, the centrepiece of which was to pay 80% of wage bills if staff were put on leave rather than let go.
But that scheme is due to finish at the end of October, and all respondents to an extra question said the risk that the job market will worsen significantly before this year draws to a close was high or very high.
“Evidence of job losses is already mounting and the planned phasing out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme in the autumn will make things worse,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.
The economic slump has pushed firms to slash thousands of jobs. While the unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 3.9% in June it was seen peaking at 8.0% in the fourth quarter, the poll found.
Stay positive
For its part, the Bank of England has chopped borrowing costs to 0.10% and restarted asset purchases.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said that negative interest rates, used by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, were part of the Bank’s toolbox but that it did not have any plans to use them for now.
Bank Rate was expected to remain at 0.10% until 2023 at least, forecasts showed, and when asked about the chance of negative interest rates, economists gave just a 22.5% median probability. Only two economists polled had sub-zero rates as their base case scenario somewhere in the forecast horizon.
Meanwhile, Britain faces the added task of trying to agree a trade deal with the European Union before a transition period following its departure from the bloc finishes at the end of this year.
Reuters polls have consistently predicted that the two sides would agree a deal, and the latest survey gave only a 30% chance that no agreement would be reached before the transition period ends.
“The UK economy faces a trifecta of risks this winter, stemming from possibly renewed COVID-19-related restrictions, an economically difficult Brexit, and significant labour market weakness,” said Stefan Koopman at Rabobank.
Reporting and photo: Reuters
Maldives on Thursday welcomed the one millionth tourist to visit this year.
The one millionth tourist is a Thai named Sutapa Amonwivat, who arrived from Singapore with her husband and two children. This is her second visit to Maldives.
Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) and the Ministry of Tourism gave a warm welcome to Sutapa at the Velana International Airport (VIA) Thursday afternoon. She was welcomed at the VIA by tourism minister Ibrahim Faisal, MMPRC Managing Director Ibrahim Shiury and senior officials of various relevant agencies.
After welcoming her with traditional offerings, she was presented with various gifts by the ministry, MMPRC, customs, immigration, Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO) and Trans Maldivian Airways (TMA).
Maldives reached one million tourists in June, three weeks earlier than last year. The number of tourists reached one million on July 16, 2023.
Maldives expects to reach 2 million tourists this year.
Chongqing Airlines on Monday began its inaugural flights to Maldives.
The Chongqing-Male route, scheduled three times a week, is expected to strengthen the bonds between China and the Maldives, opening up exciting new opportunities for tourism and cultural exchange.
The inaugural flight was welcomed upon its arrival at Velana International Airport (VIA) in Maldives, where local officials and tourism representatives expressed their enthusiasm for this new development.
“We warmly welcome our friends from China to our beautiful islands. This new connection strengthens our bonds and opens up new opportunities for tourism,” the tourism ministry said on X.
Maldives currently welcomes four airlines from China, including China Eastern, Beijing Capital Airlines, Xiamen Airlines.
In January, Maldives government urged tourism stakeholders in both Maldives and China to ramp up efforts to restore China’s position as the primary source market for Maldives tourism, a status held before the onset of Covid-19.
China, being the largest source market for Maldives tourism before the pandemic, saw a resumption of tourist arrivals from January 2023 after a three-year hiatus due to the pandemic. In 2023, the Maldives welcomed 187,118 Chinese tourists, marking a significant recovery in numbers. This year, the Maldives has welcomed the most number of tourists from China, with over 107,940 or 11.5 percent of total arrivals by June 12.
CROSSROADS Maldives has introduced WeChat Pay, widely known as Weixin Pay in China, across its world-class resorts, SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, and Hard Rock Hotel Maldives. This payment option is made available to enhance the convenience and overall experience for guests from China, making their stay in the Maldives more enjoyable and hassle-free.
Understanding the needs of the diverse guests, CROSSROADS Maldives has integrated WeChat Pay into operations, allowing guests from China to easily and securely conduct transactions using a payment method familiar to them. The introduction of WeChat Pay is a testament to CROSSROADS Maldives’ dedication to enhancing guest satisfaction by offering exceptional experiences at every turn. What is also expected through this initiative is that the guests could benefit from better foreign exchange rates, translating to better savings on their expenditures during their stay.
The option is available for guests in-house conveniently at both resorts as well as across the Marina at CROSSROADS Maldives where a wider variety of unparalleled dining and retail experiences are available for all guests. The day visitors from China will also therefore equally benefit from this new introduction at the Maldives’ premier multi-island integrated leisure destination.
SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, is a vibrant tropical escape that offers unique and locally inspired experiences. The resort features spacious rooms and villas, a variety of dining options, and an array of recreational activities designed to cater to the desires of modern travellers. Guests can escape to the island’s SAiisational natural beauty, enjoy water sports, and indulge in spa treatments, all while relishing the personalised service that defines Hilton’s Curio Collection.
Hard Rock Hotel Maldives brings the iconic Hard Rock spirit to the tranquil shores of the Maldives. This family-friendly resort offers a perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment, featuring music-inspired experiences, live performances, and the brand’s signature amenities. With luxurious accommodations, diverse dining options, and a plethora of activities for all ages, Hard Rock Hotel Maldives ensures an unforgettable holiday experience for every guest.
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