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India’s recovery to take time after economy shrinks 24% in June quarter

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NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s economy shrank by nearly a quarter in April-June, much more than forecast and pointing to a longer than previously expected recovery with analysts calling for further stimulus.

Consumer spending, private investments and exports all collapsed during the world’s strictest lockdown imposed in late March to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and India – the world’s fastest-growing large economy until a few years ago – now looks to be headed for its first full-year contraction since 1980.

Gross domestic product shrank by a record 23.9% in April-June from a year earlier, official data showed on Monday, against a Reuters poll forecast for an 18.3% contraction.

Krishnamurthy Subramanian, chief economist at the Ministry of Finance, said India’s economy was set for a “V-shaped” recovery and should perform better in the coming quarters as indicated by a pickup in rail freight, power consumption and tax collections.

Some private economists, however, said the fiscal year that began in April could see a contraction of nearly 10%, the worst performance since India won independence from British colonial rule in 1947, and likely to push millions more into poverty.

“Given the limited fiscal space and the need to stimulate a more durable growth, the growth recovery will be gradual and is likely to continue into 1H FY22,” said Suvodeep Rakshit, senior economist at Kotak Institutional Equities, Mumbai.

Consumer spending – the main driver of the economy – dropped 31.2% year-on-year in April-June compared to a 2.6% fall in the previous quarter, data showed, while capital investments were down 47.9% compared to a 2.1% rise in the previous quarter.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a $266 billion stimulus package in May, including credit guarantees on bank loans and free food grains for poor people, but consumer demand and manufacturing have yet to recover.

The Reserve Bank of India, which has reduced the benchmark repo rate INREPO=ECI by a total of 115 basis points since February, is expected to cut interest rates to boost growth after keeping them on hold this month amid rising inflation.

Virus cases on rise

The coronavirus has been spreading in India faster than anywhere else in the world, with more than 3.6 million people already infected and a death toll of over 64,400.

Continuing restrictions on transport, educational institutions and restaurants have hit manufacturing, services and retail sales, while keeping millions of workers out of jobs.

Manufacturing has already entered recession as output fell 39.3% in April-June after falling 1.4% in the previous quarter, and construction and trade services plunged by around 50%.

With an annual growth of 3.4% in the April-June quarter, the farm sector, which accounts for 15% of economic output, offered some hope the rural economy will be able to support millions of migrant workers who have returned to their villages.

Still, Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings, said the government will have to take more steps to boost the economy overall.

“Unless the central and state governments focus on re-starting the economic machine completely, the real process of repair and reconstruction will not gain momentum,” she said.

Reporting and photo: Reuters

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Maldives celebrates arrival of 2024’s 1 millionth tourist

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Maldives on Thursday welcomed the one millionth tourist to visit this year.

The one millionth tourist is a Thai named Sutapa Amonwivat, who arrived from Singapore with her husband and two children. This is her second visit to Maldives.

Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) and the Ministry of Tourism gave a warm welcome to Sutapa at the Velana International Airport (VIA) Thursday afternoon. She was welcomed at the VIA by tourism minister Ibrahim Faisal, MMPRC Managing Director Ibrahim Shiury and senior officials of various relevant agencies.

After welcoming her with traditional offerings, she was presented with various gifts by the ministry, MMPRC, customs, immigration, Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO) and Trans Maldivian Airways (TMA).

Maldives reached one million tourists in June, three weeks earlier than last year. The number of tourists reached one million on July 16, 2023.

Maldives expects to reach 2 million tourists this year.

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New air route connects Chongqing to Maldives

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Chongqing Airlines on Monday began its inaugural flights to Maldives.

The Chongqing-Male route, scheduled three times a week, is expected to strengthen the bonds between China and the Maldives, opening up exciting new opportunities for tourism and cultural exchange.

The inaugural flight was welcomed upon its arrival at Velana International Airport (VIA) in Maldives, where local officials and tourism representatives expressed their enthusiasm for this new development.

“We warmly welcome our friends from China to our beautiful islands. This new connection strengthens our bonds and opens up new opportunities for tourism,” the tourism ministry said on X.

Maldives currently welcomes four airlines from China, including China Eastern, Beijing Capital Airlines, Xiamen Airlines.

In January, Maldives government urged tourism stakeholders in both Maldives and China to ramp up efforts to restore China’s position as the primary source market for Maldives tourism, a status held before the onset of Covid-19.

China, being the largest source market for Maldives tourism before the pandemic, saw a resumption of tourist arrivals from January 2023 after a three-year hiatus due to the pandemic. In 2023, the Maldives welcomed 187,118 Chinese tourists, marking a significant recovery in numbers. This year, the Maldives has welcomed the most number of tourists from China, with over 107,940 or 11.5 percent of total arrivals by June 12. 

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CROSSROADS Maldives Introduces Weixin Pay at resorts for seamless guest experience

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CROSSROADS Maldives has introduced WeChat Pay, widely known as Weixin Pay in China, across its world-class resorts, SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, and Hard Rock Hotel Maldives. This payment option is made available to enhance the convenience and overall experience for guests from China, making their stay in the Maldives more enjoyable and hassle-free.

Understanding the needs of the diverse guests, CROSSROADS Maldives has integrated WeChat Pay into operations, allowing guests from China to easily and securely conduct transactions using a payment method familiar to them. The introduction of WeChat Pay is a testament to CROSSROADS Maldives’ dedication to enhancing guest satisfaction by offering exceptional experiences at every turn. What is also expected through this initiative is that the guests could benefit from better foreign exchange rates, translating to better savings on their expenditures during their stay.

The option is available for guests in-house conveniently at both resorts as well as across the Marina at CROSSROADS Maldives where a wider variety of unparalleled dining and retail experiences are available for all guests. The day visitors from China will also therefore equally benefit from this new introduction at the Maldives’ premier multi-island integrated leisure destination.

SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, is a vibrant tropical escape that offers unique and locally inspired experiences. The resort features spacious rooms and villas, a variety of dining options, and an array of recreational activities designed to cater to the desires of modern travellers. Guests can escape to the island’s SAiisational natural beauty, enjoy water sports, and indulge in spa treatments, all while relishing the personalised service that defines Hilton’s Curio Collection.

Hard Rock Hotel Maldives brings the iconic Hard Rock spirit to the tranquil shores of the Maldives. This family-friendly resort offers a perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment, featuring music-inspired experiences, live performances, and the brand’s signature amenities. With luxurious accommodations, diverse dining options, and a plethora of activities for all ages, Hard Rock Hotel Maldives ensures an unforgettable holiday experience for every guest.

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