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Euro zone outlook gets slight boost from EU stimulus deal: Reuters poll

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BENGALURU (Reuters) – Euro zone economic growth next year will be slightly stronger than previously thought, according to a Reuters poll of forecasters taken after European Union leaders agreed on 750 billion euros to support economies ravaged by the coronavirus.

But economists surveyed July 22-28 also concluded it would take two or more years for euro zone gross domestic product to reach pre-COVID-19 levels, despite trillions of euros of stimulus from the European Central Bank and governments.

The deal, which was not unexpected but was decided earlier than many analysts had anticipated, will bring the EU to the capital markets as a borrower for the first time. But that economic stimulus won’t be felt until 2021.

About three-quarters of economists, or 29 of 38, said their confidence around the prospects for euro zone economies from next year onward had improved, including three who said it had significantly improved. But for now, they only marginally upgraded their growth forecasts.

“While the size of the fund is not large enough to be a game changer from a macroeconomic perspective, common issuance of this magnitude of debt is a historic step for Europe and represents a pivotal change in the way the EU tackles crises,” said Angel Talavera, head of European economics at Oxford Economics.

Despite a surge of new infections in Spain, an early epicentre of the pandemic that has prompted fears of a second wave of infections, the region has emerged from stringent lockdowns after having handled the pandemic better than the United States.

However, nearly 70% of respondents to an extra question, or 26 of 38 economists, said it would take at least two years for euro zone GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. Not one said it would take less than a year.

The wider Reuters poll of around nearly 60 forecasters predicted the economy would shrink 8.0% in 2020, the worst year since the single currency was launched. That will be followed by a 5.5% expansion in 2021, unchanged from the previous poll.

The latest poll showed GDP shrinking 11.8% this quarter compared with the first three months of the year, better than the 12.2% contraction forecast a week ago. It is then forecast to grow at 8.1% in the current quarter and 2.8% in the next compared with 8.3% and 3.1% earlier.

In 2021, the economy is predicted to expand 1.4% in the first quarter, unchanged from the previous poll, followed by 1.1%, 0.8% and 0.6% in the second, third and fourth quarters, slightly better than median predictions for growth at 1.0%, 0.6% and 0.6% made just before the deal was agreed.

“Given the size and extent of the shock, it (the EU stimulus) can only smooth things out, not completely cancel any of the negative factors,” said Yvan Mamalet, senior euro area economist at Societe Generale.

“We will probably see some second-round effects like an increasing unemployment rate and corporate defaults when it becomes clear that some of the demand will never be recovered.”

Reuters poll graphic on the euro zone economic growth outlook: here

The euro zone’s two largest economies were forecast to make a sharper recovery in 2021 than expected in April, with Germany forecast to grow 4.7%, up from 4.4%, while for France 2021 growth was upgraded sharply to 7.3% from 4.2%.

The outlook for Italy, among the hardest-hit by the pandemic, was substantially brighter than in April, and is expected to grow 6.2% in 2021, up from previous predictions for an expansion of 5.0%.

As with most developed economies, the outlook for inflation has barely moved in recent months, expected to remain low. ECB rates are forecast to remain unchanged for several years.

Reporting and photo: Reuters

Events

Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) holds its 34th Annual General Meeting

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The Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) held its 34th Annual General Meeting at Kurumba Maldives today, with a total of 100 members in attendance. 

The day’s events began with a welcome address from the Chairman of MATI, Mr. Mohamed Umar, who also presided over the session. The agenda included an address from the Secretary General, Mr. Ahmed Nazeer, the review and approval of the minutes of the 33rd AGM, the review and adoption of the Annual Report and Financial Reports for 2023, the approval of the 2024 budget, the appointment of auditors for 2024, the welcoming of new members and election of executive board members to the two vacant positions (by-election).

In the member discussion session, the following topics were covered: the Government’s aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2023 and renewable energy generation in the Tourism Industry, new terminal of Velana International Airport and developments, employment challenges, the Industrial Relations Act and trade unions, environmental conservation and the significance of creating and executing efficient management plans for protected areas like the South Ari Marine Protected Area (SAMPA).

Following the official proceedings, the Minister of Tourism Hon. Ibrahim Faisal and the Minister of Economic Development and Trade Hon. Mohamed Saeed joined the forum. The Ministers provided remarks and engaged in a Member Q&A session. This session provided members with the chance to directly engage with the Ministers and delve into crucial industry topics. The queries focused on the Economic Outlook, forthcoming development plans and  immediate challenges and issues affecting the Tourism Industry.

A video presentation was also showcased that delved into the extensive work undertaken by MATI in 2023. The video also touched upon the Tourism Industry’s performance over the past 5 years, as well as the current and projected human resource capacity of the sector.

In his closing remarks, the Secretary General highlighted the importance of collaborative efforts in addressing industry challenges and called for greater unison amongst industry stakeholders, ending with an acknowledgement of the promising start to the year in terms of arrivals.

Executive Board Members elected to the 2 vacant positions (by-election):

  1. Ibrahim Shareef, CEO and Managing Director of Maldives Airports Company Limited
  2. Renato De Olivera, General Manager of The Ritz-Carlton Maldives, Fari Islands and representative of Marriott International
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Unlocking power of travel storytelling at Travel Creators Exchange 2024

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Join us for the Travel Creators Exchange 2024, taking place on February 1, 2024, at the Hotel Jen in Male’, Maldives.

This dynamic event provides a platform for networking and collaboration among Maldives-based travel creators, fostering connections, idea-sharing, and the establishment of lasting partnerships to expand opportunities and monetise content.

Our lineup of distinguished speakers includes:

  • Zihuny Rasheed, Deputy Managing Director of MMPRC, will present on “Power of Digital Storytelling: Collaborative Strategies for Destination Promotion.” MMPRC actively markets the Maldives globally, utilising a comprehensive approach that includes travel trade shows, roadshows, digital marketing, and more.
  • Amjad Thaufeeg, Commercial Director of Kuda Villingili Maldives Resort, brings over 23 years of hospitality industry experience. He will discuss “The Role of Content in Tourism Marketing,” drawing on expertise in revenue, customer service, sales & marketing, and human capital development.
  • Suresh Dissanayake, Assistant Vice President of Sales & Marketing of Heritance Aarah & Adaaran Resorts, with nearly two decades of experience, will shed light on “What does a Sales and Marketing Director Do?” He brings extensive luxury hospitality experience and a proven track record in sales, distribution, and marketing.
  • Vishal Amir Ahmed, a versatile cinematographer and content creator, will explore “Who is a Content Creator.” Currently associated with Various Arts Studio, he specialises in providing multimedia solutions to various clients.

Organised by Maldives Insider, Maldives Virtual Tour, Travel Trade Maldives, and Hotelier Maldives, this collaborative effort aims to empower Maldives-based travel content creators and elevate the Maldives as a premier destination for captivating travel storytelling.

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Acclaimed contemporary artist Ana Pušica explores perpetuality and community at Patina Maldives

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Ana Pušica Kramer, an internationally  acclaimed contemporary artist, joins Patina Maldives for an exclusive  art residency in the now infamous Fari Art Atelier. From January 22 to  February 22, 2024, Ana Pušica will grace the shores of the Fari Islands,  weaving a vibrant narrative of colour and emotion across her larger  than-life canvases. 

Her artistry transcends boundaries, melding abstraction and figuration into awe-inspiring masterpieces. Having exhibited globally, from New York to Beijing, Ana’s paintings are a physical, intuitive act rooted in movement.  Described as a “beautiful fluorescent thunderstorm,” Ana’s art explores light and colour, capturing the energy of life itself. 

The Fari Art Atelier which has previously hosted the likes of Daniel Arsham, Chris Stamp and David Nott, will be transformed into Ana’s studio and gallery showcasing her enthralling artworks—a mesmerising journey through poetry, memory, and the vibrant interplay of colour. Guests at Patina are invited to delve into Ana’s world, where each stroke reveals layers of meaning, evoking sensations of intense lightness and boundless interpretation. 

At Patina Maldives, Ana will immerse herself in a month-long residency, inviting the Patina Malidves community or guests and team to witness her artistic fervour firsthand. Guests will have the rare opportunity not only to observe her creative process but also to engage with and create art alongside this luminary.

Experience artistry at its most exclusive

Art Exhibition
Experience Ana’s captivating exploration of colour and emotion in her spellbinding artworks displayed at the Fari Atelier.

Art Workshops: Message in a Bottle
As part of a collaborative artwork, Ana invites Patina guests to participate in short workshops, actively contributing to the creation of a permanent installation at Patina Maldives.

Open Studio Session
Join Ana for an exclusive open studio session, offering guests a behind the-scenes look at her creative process.

Ana Pušica residency package
Discover a world where creativity knows no bounds as Ana Pušica, the maestro of contemporary art, transforms Patina Maldives into an immersive canvas of inspiration.

Book now to secure your experience.
For more information and reservations, please visit Patina Maldives or contact
reservations.maldives@patinahotels.com

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