Business

India’s gloomy outlook darkens, recovery path in doubt: Reuters poll

Published

4 years ago

July 30, 2020

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The outlook for India’s reeling economy has worsened again as business activity slows and COVID-19 infections soar, and will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates again soon, a Reuters poll of economists suggests.

The latest findings echo recent criticism of New Delhi’s $266 billion economic rescue package, which does not include new spending, tax breaks or cash support, suggesting more will be needed to turn the economy around.

With India now the third-worst-hit country by number of infections after the United States and Brazil, the risk of renewed lockdowns after a nationwide shutdown in March-May has risen.

The Indian economy is now likely to contract this quarter and next and in this fiscal year as a whole, according to the July 20-28 poll of nearly 60 economists. Growth had been expected for all of those periods except the second quarter in the previous poll, taken in April.

“India’s failure to contain the spread of the coronavirus, and the government’s underwhelming support package for firms and households, means the economy will suffer its largest drop in output on record this year,” said Darren Aw, Asia economist at Capital Economics in Singapore.

In the quarter just gone by, the Indian economy is forecast to have shrunk 20.0% – the first double-digit contraction since official quarterly data started being released in the mid-1990s. It will then contract 6.0% and 0.3% in the current and following quarters, respectively, according to the poll.

That compared to a -5.2% forecast for the last quarter in the April 23 poll, followed by 0.8% and 4.2% growth in the current and next quarters, respectively.

For the current fiscal year, Asia’s third-largest economy is forecast to shrink 5.1%, a complete turnaround from the 1.5% growth predicted in the previous poll. It would be the weakest performance since 1979.

Under a worst-case scenario, the economy is forecast to have contracted 30.0% in the April-June quarter, and to shrink 10.0%, 4.0% and 9.1% in the current and next quarters and this fiscal year, respectively.

“The health crisis is yet to be addressed and is spreading geographically, which has led to re-initiation of lockdowns and restrictions in many parts of the country,” said Prithviraj Srinivas, chief economist at Axis Capital in Mumbai.

“With the health crisis yet to be contained, we cannot hope for a smooth recovery.”

When asked how long would it take for India’s gross domestic product to reach pre-COVID-19 levels, a slight majority of economists, 23 of 44, said within two years.

Only seven respondents predicted it would happen within a year, while the remaining 14 said it would take two years or more.

Inflation is expected to average 4.5% this fiscal year, and the RBI is forecast to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points at its Aug. 4-6 meeting, and once more next quarter, to a record low of 3.50%.

The RBI has already reduced the repo rate by a total of 115 basis points since February, and 135 basis points in an easing cycle last year, from 6.50%, responding to an economy that was already slowing.

In response to an additional question, over three-quarters of 45 economists said the strength of the recovery had worsened or at best stayed the same over the last month.

“The government is the only catalyst at this moment to be able to spur growth and mitigate the COVID-19 crisis,” said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.

“Fiscal policy is there to fill in the gap left by an absence of domestic demand from the private sector, which we saw over Q2. Basically the private sector was locked up for two months, but the government hasn’t stepped up in any way that could have helped cover this gap.”

Reporting and photo: Reuters

Business

Maldives celebrates arrival of 2024’s 1 millionth tourist

Published

4 weeks ago

June 27, 2024

m@ldives

Maldives on Thursday welcomed the one millionth tourist to visit this year.

The one millionth tourist is a Thai named Sutapa Amonwivat, who arrived from Singapore with her husband and two children. This is her second visit to Maldives.

Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) and the Ministry of Tourism gave a warm welcome to Sutapa at the Velana International Airport (VIA) Thursday afternoon. She was welcomed at the VIA by tourism minister Ibrahim Faisal, MMPRC Managing Director Ibrahim Shiury and senior officials of various relevant agencies.

After welcoming her with traditional offerings, she was presented with various gifts by the ministry, MMPRC, customs, immigration, Maldives Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators (MATATO) and Trans Maldivian Airways (TMA).

Maldives reached one million tourists in June, three weeks earlier than last year. The number of tourists reached one million on July 16, 2023.

Maldives expects to reach 2 million tourists this year.

Business

New air route connects Chongqing to Maldives

Published

1 month ago

June 25, 2024

m@ldives

Chongqing Airlines on Monday began its inaugural flights to Maldives.

The Chongqing-Male route, scheduled three times a week, is expected to strengthen the bonds between China and the Maldives, opening up exciting new opportunities for tourism and cultural exchange.

The inaugural flight was welcomed upon its arrival at Velana International Airport (VIA) in Maldives, where local officials and tourism representatives expressed their enthusiasm for this new development.

“We warmly welcome our friends from China to our beautiful islands. This new connection strengthens our bonds and opens up new opportunities for tourism,” the tourism ministry said on X.

Maldives currently welcomes four airlines from China, including China Eastern, Beijing Capital Airlines, Xiamen Airlines.

In January, Maldives government urged tourism stakeholders in both Maldives and China to ramp up efforts to restore China’s position as the primary source market for Maldives tourism, a status held before the onset of Covid-19.

China, being the largest source market for Maldives tourism before the pandemic, saw a resumption of tourist arrivals from January 2023 after a three-year hiatus due to the pandemic. In 2023, the Maldives welcomed 187,118 Chinese tourists, marking a significant recovery in numbers. This year, the Maldives has welcomed the most number of tourists from China, with over 107,940 or 11.5 percent of total arrivals by June 12.

Business

CROSSROADS Maldives Introduces Weixin Pay at resorts for seamless guest experience

Published

1 month ago

June 21, 2024

m@ldives

CROSSROADS Maldives has introduced WeChat Pay, widely known as Weixin Pay in China, across its world-class resorts, SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, and Hard Rock Hotel Maldives. This payment option is made available to enhance the convenience and overall experience for guests from China, making their stay in the Maldives more enjoyable and hassle-free.

Understanding the needs of the diverse guests, CROSSROADS Maldives has integrated WeChat Pay into operations, allowing guests from China to easily and securely conduct transactions using a payment method familiar to them. The introduction of WeChat Pay is a testament to CROSSROADS Maldives’ dedication to enhancing guest satisfaction by offering exceptional experiences at every turn. What is also expected through this initiative is that the guests could benefit from better foreign exchange rates, translating to better savings on their expenditures during their stay.

The option is available for guests in-house conveniently at both resorts as well as across the Marina at CROSSROADS Maldives where a wider variety of unparalleled dining and retail experiences are available for all guests. The day visitors from China will also therefore equally benefit from this new introduction at the Maldives’ premier multi-island integrated leisure destination.

SAii Lagoon Maldives, Curio Collection by Hilton, is a vibrant tropical escape that offers unique and locally inspired experiences. The resort features spacious rooms and villas, a variety of dining options, and an array of recreational activities designed to cater to the desires of modern travellers. Guests can escape to the island’s SAiisational natural beauty, enjoy water sports, and indulge in spa treatments, all while relishing the personalised service that defines Hilton’s Curio Collection.

Hard Rock Hotel Maldives brings the iconic Hard Rock spirit to the tranquil shores of the Maldives. This family-friendly resort offers a perfect blend of relaxation and entertainment, featuring music-inspired experiences, live performances, and the brand’s signature amenities. With luxurious accommodations, diverse dining options, and a plethora of activities for all ages, Hard Rock Hotel Maldives ensures an unforgettable holiday experience for every guest.