Business

India’s gloomy outlook darkens, recovery path in doubt: Reuters poll

Published

4 years ago

July 30, 2020

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The outlook for India’s reeling economy has worsened again as business activity slows and COVID-19 infections soar, and will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates again soon, a Reuters poll of economists suggests.

The latest findings echo recent criticism of New Delhi’s $266 billion economic rescue package, which does not include new spending, tax breaks or cash support, suggesting more will be needed to turn the economy around.

With India now the third-worst-hit country by number of infections after the United States and Brazil, the risk of renewed lockdowns after a nationwide shutdown in March-May has risen.

The Indian economy is now likely to contract this quarter and next and in this fiscal year as a whole, according to the July 20-28 poll of nearly 60 economists. Growth had been expected for all of those periods except the second quarter in the previous poll, taken in April.

“India’s failure to contain the spread of the coronavirus, and the government’s underwhelming support package for firms and households, means the economy will suffer its largest drop in output on record this year,” said Darren Aw, Asia economist at Capital Economics in Singapore.

In the quarter just gone by, the Indian economy is forecast to have shrunk 20.0% – the first double-digit contraction since official quarterly data started being released in the mid-1990s. It will then contract 6.0% and 0.3% in the current and following quarters, respectively, according to the poll.

That compared to a -5.2% forecast for the last quarter in the April 23 poll, followed by 0.8% and 4.2% growth in the current and next quarters, respectively.

For the current fiscal year, Asia’s third-largest economy is forecast to shrink 5.1%, a complete turnaround from the 1.5% growth predicted in the previous poll. It would be the weakest performance since 1979.

Under a worst-case scenario, the economy is forecast to have contracted 30.0% in the April-June quarter, and to shrink 10.0%, 4.0% and 9.1% in the current and next quarters and this fiscal year, respectively.

“The health crisis is yet to be addressed and is spreading geographically, which has led to re-initiation of lockdowns and restrictions in many parts of the country,” said Prithviraj Srinivas, chief economist at Axis Capital in Mumbai.

“With the health crisis yet to be contained, we cannot hope for a smooth recovery.”

When asked how long would it take for India’s gross domestic product to reach pre-COVID-19 levels, a slight majority of economists, 23 of 44, said within two years.

Only seven respondents predicted it would happen within a year, while the remaining 14 said it would take two years or more.

Inflation is expected to average 4.5% this fiscal year, and the RBI is forecast to cut the repo rate by another 25 basis points at its Aug. 4-6 meeting, and once more next quarter, to a record low of 3.50%.

The RBI has already reduced the repo rate by a total of 115 basis points since February, and 135 basis points in an easing cycle last year, from 6.50%, responding to an economy that was already slowing.

In response to an additional question, over three-quarters of 45 economists said the strength of the recovery had worsened or at best stayed the same over the last month.

“The government is the only catalyst at this moment to be able to spur growth and mitigate the COVID-19 crisis,” said Hugo Erken, head of international economics at Rabobank.

“Fiscal policy is there to fill in the gap left by an absence of domestic demand from the private sector, which we saw over Q2. Basically the private sector was locked up for two months, but the government hasn’t stepped up in any way that could have helped cover this gap.”

Reporting and photo: Reuters

Events

Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) holds its 34th Annual General Meeting

Published

2 months ago

February 20, 2024

Maldives Insider

The Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI) held its 34th Annual General Meeting at Kurumba Maldives today, with a total of 100 members in attendance.

The day’s events began with a welcome address from the Chairman of MATI, Mr. Mohamed Umar, who also presided over the session. The agenda included an address from the Secretary General, Mr. Ahmed Nazeer, the review and approval of the minutes of the 33rd AGM, the review and adoption of the Annual Report and Financial Reports for 2023, the approval of the 2024 budget, the appointment of auditors for 2024, the welcoming of new members and election of executive board members to the two vacant positions (by-election).

In the member discussion session, the following topics were covered: the Government’s aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2023 and renewable energy generation in the Tourism Industry, new terminal of Velana International Airport and developments, employment challenges, the Industrial Relations Act and trade unions, environmental conservation and the significance of creating and executing efficient management plans for protected areas like the South Ari Marine Protected Area (SAMPA).

Following the official proceedings, the Minister of Tourism Hon. Ibrahim Faisal and the Minister of Economic Development and Trade Hon. Mohamed Saeed joined the forum. The Ministers provided remarks and engaged in a Member Q&A session. This session provided members with the chance to directly engage with the Ministers and delve into crucial industry topics. The queries focused on the Economic Outlook, forthcoming development plans and immediate challenges and issues affecting the Tourism Industry.

A video presentation was also showcased that delved into the extensive work undertaken by MATI in 2023. The video also touched upon the Tourism Industry’s performance over the past 5 years, as well as the current and projected human resource capacity of the sector.

In his closing remarks, the Secretary General highlighted the importance of collaborative efforts in addressing industry challenges and called for greater unison amongst industry stakeholders, ending with an acknowledgement of the promising start to the year in terms of arrivals.

Executive Board Members elected to the 2 vacant positions (by-election):

Ibrahim Shareef, CEO and Managing Director of Maldives Airports Company Limited
Renato De Olivera, General Manager of The Ritz-Carlton Maldives, Fari Islands and representative of Marriott International

Business

Unlocking power of travel storytelling at Travel Creators Exchange 2024

Published

3 months ago

January 30, 2024

m@ldives

Join us for the Travel Creators Exchange 2024, taking place on February 1, 2024, at the Hotel Jen in Male’, Maldives.

This dynamic event provides a platform for networking and collaboration among Maldives-based travel creators, fostering connections, idea-sharing, and the establishment of lasting partnerships to expand opportunities and monetise content.

Our lineup of distinguished speakers includes:

Zihuny Rasheed, Deputy Managing Director of MMPRC, will present on “Power of Digital Storytelling: Collaborative Strategies for Destination Promotion.” MMPRC actively markets the Maldives globally, utilising a comprehensive approach that includes travel trade shows, roadshows, digital marketing, and more.
Amjad Thaufeeg, Commercial Director of Kuda Villingili Maldives Resort, brings over 23 years of hospitality industry experience. He will discuss “The Role of Content in Tourism Marketing,” drawing on expertise in revenue, customer service, sales & marketing, and human capital development.
Suresh Dissanayake, Assistant Vice President of Sales & Marketing of Heritance Aarah & Adaaran Resorts, with nearly two decades of experience, will shed light on “What does a Sales and Marketing Director Do?” He brings extensive luxury hospitality experience and a proven track record in sales, distribution, and marketing.
Vishal Amir Ahmed, a versatile cinematographer and content creator, will explore “Who is a Content Creator.” Currently associated with Various Arts Studio, he specialises in providing multimedia solutions to various clients.

Organised by Maldives Insider, Maldives Virtual Tour, Travel Trade Maldives, and Hotelier Maldives, this collaborative effort aims to empower Maldives-based travel content creators and elevate the Maldives as a premier destination for captivating travel storytelling.

Events

Acclaimed contemporary artist Ana Pušica explores perpetuality and community at Patina Maldives

Published

4 months ago

January 3, 2024

Maldives Insider

Ana Pušica Kramer, an internationally acclaimed contemporary artist, joins Patina Maldives for an exclusive art residency in the now infamous Fari Art Atelier. From January 22 to February 22, 2024, Ana Pušica will grace the shores of the Fari Islands, weaving a vibrant narrative of colour and emotion across her larger than-life canvases.

Her artistry transcends boundaries, melding abstraction and figuration into awe-inspiring masterpieces. Having exhibited globally, from New York to Beijing, Ana’s paintings are a physical, intuitive act rooted in movement. Described as a “beautiful fluorescent thunderstorm,” Ana’s art explores light and colour, capturing the energy of life itself.

The Fari Art Atelier which has previously hosted the likes of Daniel Arsham, Chris Stamp and David Nott, will be transformed into Ana’s studio and gallery showcasing her enthralling artworks—a mesmerising journey through poetry, memory, and the vibrant interplay of colour. Guests at Patina are invited to delve into Ana’s world, where each stroke reveals layers of meaning, evoking sensations of intense lightness and boundless interpretation.

At Patina Maldives, Ana will immerse herself in a month-long residency, inviting the Patina Malidves community or guests and team to witness her artistic fervour firsthand. Guests will have the rare opportunity not only to observe her creative process but also to engage with and create art alongside this luminary.

Experience artistry at its most exclusive

Art Exhibition
Experience Ana’s captivating exploration of colour and emotion in her spellbinding artworks displayed at the Fari Atelier.

Art Workshops: Message in a Bottle
As part of a collaborative artwork, Ana invites Patina guests to participate in short workshops, actively contributing to the creation of a permanent installation at Patina Maldives.

Open Studio Session
Join Ana for an exclusive open studio session, offering guests a behind the-scenes look at her creative process.

Ana Pušica residency package
Discover a world where creativity knows no bounds as Ana Pušica, the maestro of contemporary art, transforms Patina Maldives into an immersive canvas of inspiration.

Book now to secure your experience.
For more information and reservations, please visit Patina Maldives or contact
reservations.maldives@patinahotels.com