Business
As pandemic rages on, world economic recovery looks ever more shaky: Reuters poll
BENGALURU (Reuters) – The world economic outlook has dimmed again, with still-rising coronavirus infections and the risk of renewed lockdowns increasing the chances that any rebound will reverse course, according to Reuters polls of over 500 economists globally.
Over 17 million people have been infected worldwide by the coronavirus and more than two-thirds of a million people have died. That has forced governments to impose strict lockdown measures to curb the spread of the virus, keeping citizens at home and businesses closed and spurring recessions that aren’t over yet.
Surging cases in the United States, where related deaths have surpassed 150,000, have led several states to reimpose restrictions. Most economists, long-term investors and even Fed Chair Jerome Powell have clearly said the economic outlook depends significantly on the course of the virus.
The Fed has pledged endless stimulus to support the world’s No. 1 economy, which was a major growth engine for the global economy before the pandemic and now risks being the biggest drag, sending the dollar to a two-year low.
With infections also on the rise elsewhere, including in Australia, India, Spain, and Brazil, economists again cut this year’s economic prospects in the July 3-29 polls which show the worst contraction on record for the world economy in 2020.
“We expect the economic reality of the virus to start catching up with businesses across the globe soon,” said Jan Lambregts, global head financial markets research at Rabobank.
“What we need is a vaccine or significant breakthroughs in medicines to decisively reopen our economies and restore business and consumer confidence – but there is no magic wand for the time being.”
Reuters polls since the start of the pandemic follow a pattern: repeated downgrades to the near-term outlook, with economists shifting an expected recovery in the second half of the year to 2021, flattening out an initial V-shaped assumption.
The global economy was expected to shrink 4.0% this year, or by about $3.4 trillion, roughly equivalent to wiping out the economies of Canada and Australia entirely. That is down from -3.7% predicted in June, the sixth consecutive downgrade to forecasts from 3.1% growth forecast in January.
The world economy is expected to grow 5.3% next year, slightly less than the 5.4% predicted last month. But those expectations are based on the disease being contained, with widespread hopes of a vaccine sometime soon.
But under a worst-case scenario, it will contract 6.5% this year, much worse than the International Monetary Fund’s -4.9% projection, then grow just 2.0% next year.
“Over six months into the crisis, evidence is mounting that the global economy is likely to look lastingly different due to the pandemic,” noted Christian Keller, head of economics research at Barclays.
“Changes have been obvious in the attitude towards monetary and fiscal policy, but they also extend to global trade, supply chains, international travel and geopolitics.”
The economic outlook for the U.S., Canada, Britain, Japan and Australia was downgraded and expectations for 2021 growth are modest given the historic downturn expected this year.
Of all of the major economies, the proportion of forecasters who said the U.S. outlook had improved in the last month was, by far, the smallest.
For the euro zone, the outlook for next year onward got a slight boost after the European Union leaders agreed on a stimulus package of 750 billion euros.
Latin America are mostly still struggling, suffering historic recessions and either facing resurgent infections or still not getting the first round under control.
China, where the virus is thought to have originated, was expected to recover faster economically than others, even though it still relies heavily on exporting to the rest of the world.
Asked how the recovery outlook had changed over the past month, three-quarters of economists, or 183 of 244, said it had either stayed the same or worsened.
Just over half, 75 of 149, who responded to another question said it would take two or more years for GDP in the economies they cover to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. Sixty expected it would take at least a year or two and the remaining 14 said less than a year.
“Our forecasts point to a world which, by end-2021, has a level of activity that is not just well below its pre-pandemic growth trajectory but, in many cases, still below its end-2019 level,” noted HSBC’s global chief economist Janet Henry.
Reporting and photo: Reuters
Barcelo Nasandhura Malé, the Maldives’ newest luxury destination, is set to open its doors in Q1 2025.
Located on the site of the former Nasandhura Palace Hotel, the property will become the largest hotel in the capital, Malé. With 136 elegantly designed rooms, including 95 with stunning ocean views, and 116 luxurious serviced apartments, Barcelo Nasandhura Malé promises a unique blend of sophistication, comfort, and convenience in the heart of this vibrant city.
Operated by the renowned Spanish hotel chain Barcelo Group, the hotel represents a significant expansion of the brand’s presence in the Maldives and beyond. Barcelo Group, known for its exceptional resorts, recently opened Barcelo Whale Lagoon Maldives in South Ari Atoll in August 2024, further solidifying its growing portfolio in the region. In addition to its Maldivian properties, Barcelo Group manages a range of high-profile hotels across the UAE, Thailand, and several European countries.
Barcelo Nasandhura Malé will feature an array of premium facilities, including four upscale dining outlets, a rooftop shisha bar, an oceanfront pool, a state-of-the-art gym, and a luxurious spa. The hotel will also boast 1,034 square meters of versatile MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) space, making it an ideal venue for corporate events and gatherings.
While some serviced apartments were initially intended for residential use, they will now be available for daily rental, offering guests enhanced flexibility and a wider range of accommodation options. Originally scheduled to open on December 1, 2024, the opening has been slightly delayed due to minor construction work. However, the team remains committed to ensuring Barcelo Nasandhura Malé is ready to welcome its first guests in Q1 2025.
Barcelo Hotel Group, awarded World’s Leading Hotel Management Company 2023 by the World Travel Awards, is the second-largest hotel chain in Spain and ranks among the 30 largest globally in terms of the number of rooms. Founded in 1931, this family-run organisation operates 280 four- and five-star city and holiday hotels, offering more than 62,000 rooms across 25 countries. The group markets its hotels under four distinct brands, each focused on providing diverse and memorable travel experiences.
Renowned for its commitment to excellence and sustainability, Barcelo Hotel Group delivers exceptional stays, seamlessly blending luxury, comfort, and environmental responsibility.
As part of its ‘Masters for Masters’ series, The Nautilus Maldives will host Denise Hoefer, Germany’s No. 1 padel player and one of the world’s top 50 most influential figures in the padel industry, for an exclusive Padel Masterclass from March 22 to 25, 2025. This exceptional event invites guests to enhance their padel skills under the expert guidance of a global champion, all set against the stunning backdrop of the Maldives’ Indian Ocean.
Padel, recognised as the world’s fastest-growing sport, has captured the hearts of 30 million enthusiasts globally, according to the International Padel Federation. This March, The Nautilus will provide a unique opportunity for guests to immerse themselves in this thrilling game during a four-day Padel Masterclass led by Denise Hoefer, Germany’s top-ranked female padel player and captain of the German national team. Participants will refine their techniques on The Nautilus’s state-of-the-art padel court, while experiencing the island’s signature blend of world-class coaching and timeless, unscripted hospitality.
The Padel Masterclass will feature a tailored mix of group and private sessions, catering to players of all levels. Younger participants will have the chance to join the Young Wonderers program, offering specially designed classes that introduce the sport in a fun and engaging way. After an energising day on the court, guests can unwind at Solasta Spa, where exclusive treatments by Maison Caulières—such as Spinal Connection Deep Tissue Healing, Volcanic Stone Therapy, and Warm Poultices—promise ultimate relaxation and rejuvenation. These tranquil spa experiences provide a perfect complement to the day’s dynamic activities, leaving participants refreshed and revitalised.
With just 26 ultra-luxury houses and residences, The Nautilus offers an intimate sanctuary within the Baa Atoll, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. Surrounded by powder-soft white sands, vibrant coral reefs, and crystal-clear waters, this private island retreat redefines bespoke hospitality. Every element is meticulously crafted to inspire, offering guests an unparalleled ultra-luxury experience focused on relaxation, renewal, and discovery. Whether honing padel skills or embracing the serenity of island life, The Nautilus stands as the ultimate destination for discerning travellers.
BBM, in collaboration with Lifebuoy, marked Global Handwashing Day 2024 with engaging activities aimed at instilling the habit of proper hand hygiene among Maldivian school children. Held on November 17th, the event continued the successful “H for Handwashing” campaign, blending education with creativity and fun.
The initiative featured info sessions, exciting games, and creative contests designed to teach children the importance of handwashing while giving them a hands-on understanding of the correct techniques. Activities ranged from reimagined board games like “Germs & Ladders” and “Handwashing Ludo” to interactive sessions that reinforced hygiene habits in an enjoyable way.
This campaign underscores BBM’s commitment to fostering healthier practices among the younger generation, contributing to a healthier and more hygienic Maldives. COO of BBM, A.V.S. Subrahmanyam, emphasised, “At BBM, we believe that empowering the next generation with the knowledge and tools for better hygiene practices is vital for building a resilient and healthy community. We are proud to continue our efforts in collaboration with partners like Lifebuoy.”
Adding to this, Muksith Hussain, Head of Retail Sales at BBM, shared, “Reaching children through such innovative initiatives helps us lay the foundation for a healthier tomorrow. We are thrilled to see the enthusiasm and participation of these young minds in learning the importance of hygiene.”
The event also saw valuable support from the Maldivian Red Crescent (MRC), whose contributions enriched the experience for the children. BBM expressed gratitude for MRC’s involvement, as their efforts played a key role in making the event impactful and memorable.
Through campaigns like this, BBM aims to nurture a lifelong habit of handwashing, creating a brighter and healthier future for the Maldives.
Let’s keep the spirit alive—join the Handwashing Revolution with BBM and Lifebuoy!
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