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Britain’s economy won’t reach pre-pandemic size for at least two years: Reuters Poll

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LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy will not fully recover from its current historic downturn for at least two years, a Reuters poll of economists found, but there is only a slim chance the Bank of England will use negative interest rates to boost the upswing.

Britain has suffered the highest death toll from the novel coronavirus in Europe, leading to criticism of the government’s response to the pandemic.

Last quarter, when a lockdown to quell the spread of the virus was at its tightest, the economy shrank a record 20.4%. But as many restrictions have been lifted, it was expected to expand 15.1% this quarter, the Aug. 14-19 poll showed.

“The severity of the slump was chiefly a by-product of the very long lockdown in the UK, necessitated by the government’s laissez-faire attitude in the early days of the pandemic, which meant the virus spread more widely than in other countries,” said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Earlier this month the BoE said the economy would not recover to its pre-pandemic size until the end of 2021, but 20 of 23 economists who responded to an extra question said it would be at least two years before that happened. Only three said within two years.

After contracting 9.7% this year – more than most of its peers and more than the 9.1% forecast last month – the economy will expand 6.2% in 2021, the poll of nearly 70 economists predicted. In a worst case scenario, it will contract 14.2% this year.

“Unlike BoE chief economist Andy Haldane, who thinks it is now time to see the economic glass as ‘half-full’, recent data outturns have made us more pessimistic about the lasting economic impact,” said Elizabeth Martins at HSBC.

To support the economy the government has ramped up spending to record amounts, the centrepiece of which was to pay 80% of wage bills if staff were put on leave rather than let go.

But that scheme is due to finish at the end of October, and all respondents to an extra question said the risk that the job market will worsen significantly before this year draws to a close was high or very high.

“Evidence of job losses is already mounting and the planned phasing out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme in the autumn will make things worse,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

The economic slump has pushed firms to slash thousands of jobs. While the unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 3.9% in June it was seen peaking at 8.0% in the fourth quarter, the poll found.

Stay positive

For its part, the Bank of England has chopped borrowing costs to 0.10% and restarted asset purchases.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said that negative interest rates, used by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, were part of the Bank’s toolbox but that it did not have any plans to use them for now.

Bank Rate was expected to remain at 0.10% until 2023 at least, forecasts showed, and when asked about the chance of negative interest rates, economists gave just a 22.5% median probability. Only two economists polled had sub-zero rates as their base case scenario somewhere in the forecast horizon.

Meanwhile, Britain faces the added task of trying to agree a trade deal with the European Union before a transition period following its departure from the bloc finishes at the end of this year.

Reuters polls have consistently predicted that the two sides would agree a deal, and the latest survey gave only a 30% chance that no agreement would be reached before the transition period ends.

“The UK economy faces a trifecta of risks this winter, stemming from possibly renewed COVID-19-related restrictions, an economically difficult Brexit, and significant labour market weakness,” said Stefan Koopman at Rabobank.

Reporting and photo: Reuters

Business

Dubai Chocolate Brownies in Maldives: BBM, Dreidoppel conclude pastry tour

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BBM’s exclusive Dreidoppel Demo Tour, led by Master Pâtissier Frankie Robin, concluded successfully on Apr 30th, after a 10-day pastry training series across 15 leading Maldivian resorts that requested the training. Two city bakeries were also trained on the 30th. The initiative brought together global expertise and a strong commitment to raising pastry standards in the local hospitality industry.

This year’s sessions focused on practical pastry solutions using Dreidoppel’s premium ingredient range to create Panettone, Dubai chocolate brownies, Mousses, Crème Brûlée, Fill & Gloss applications, and Caramel Chocolate Snacks.

A standout feature of the tour was the passion shown by young chefs across the islands.

Chef Frankie Robin remarked, “What truly impressed me was how prepared and passionate the young chefs were. Their eagerness to learn, experiment, and take their skills to world-class standards made every session an absolute joy.”

Grounded in real kitchen challenges—speed, flavour, and efficiency—Chef Frankie’s demos showcased how smart ingredient choices can drive both creativity and performance.

A.V.S. Subrahmanyam, Chief Operating Officer at BBM, added, “At BBM, we believe in more than just supplying ingredients—we are committed to the professional growth of the industry. Collaborations like this empower culinary teams with global techniques and greater confidence.”

The tour reflects BBM’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the Maldivian foodservice industry through knowledge-sharing and access to world-class products.

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BBM brings Vaseline, Hellmann’s, BRU Coffee to Maldives market

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Bestbuy Maldives (BBM) extended their strong and decades old partnership with Unilever International, by adding to their brand portfolio – Vaseline, Hellmann’s, and BRU Coffee for the Maldivian market.

The collaboration was announced at a Business gathering held at the Manhattan Business Hotel, attended by over 300 trade partners from across Maldives.

With this partnership, BBM strengthens its retail offerings across the Maldives archipelago. Vaseline, a trusted name in skincare, and Hellmann’s, known globally for quality food products, will now be available through BBM’s distribution network.

“Vaseline is a name that generations trust for skin care. And Hellmann’s is a global icon in flavours. We’re proud to bring both to shelves across the Maldives and enrich everyday living for our customers,” said Muksith Hussain, Business Head – Retail.

In the hospitality sector, BBM introduces Bru Coffee as an addition to its HORECA (Hotel, Restaurant, Café) offerings. BRU Coffee provides a quality beverage option for hotels, resorts, and restaurants across the Maldives.

“BRU is one of the most loved coffee brands in the region. With this launch, we’re giving our hospitality partners a versatile product that delivers on both taste and reliability that can be consumed as a beverage and for the purpose of dessert preparation, something they can serve with confidence,” said Hisham Girsy, Business Head – HORECA.

The gathering served as a platform for BBM to engage with its valued trade partners and introduce these new brands to the market.

A.V.S Subrahmanyam, Chief Operating Officer at BBM, remarked: “BBM is built on relationships. This event reflects our commitment to not just introduce great products but to support, connect, and elevate our trade partners. We’re in this together, and the journey ahead is promising.”

As BBM continues to grow its portfolio and global partnerships, the focus remains clear delivering excellence, building trust, and shaping the future of trade in the Maldives.

Bestbuy Maldives (BBM) is a leading distribution company in the Maldives, connecting international brands with local businesses across retail and hospitality sectors. With a customer-focused approach and extensive distribution network, BBM continues to be a trusted partner in the Maldivian market.

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Redefining corporate retreats at Cinnamon Dhonveli Maldives

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MICE travel is undergoing a sea change—quite literally. No longer limited to traditional conference rooms and structured schedules, Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Events (MICE) are now about creating moments that inspire, rejuvenate, and bring teams closer together. At Cinnamon Dhonveli Maldives, the boundaries between business and leisure blur, offering a setting that transforms work into a pleasure.

Just a 20-minute speedboat ride from Malé, Cinnamon Dhonveli Maldives is the ideal destination for teams looking to escape the expected. Here, brainstorming sessions take place on powder-soft beaches, where the rhythmic waves set the pace for new ideas. Mornings might begin with yoga by the ocean, followed by strategy meetings in open-air pavilions. Afternoons invite collaborative workshops under swaying palms or team-building activities that include snorkelling, paddleboarding, or even a friendly beach volleyball match.

Dining at Cinnamon Dhonveli Maldives elevates every corporate event with fresh, sea-to-table cuisine, designed to fuel both body and mind. From curated group dinners under star-streaked skies to themed private banquets, every meal becomes an experience in itself. For those looking to celebrate milestones or reward top performers, the resort’s scenic locations offer the perfect backdrop for gala evenings or intimate cocktail gatherings.

Accommodation blends comfort with elegance, offering ocean-view suites and beachside retreats that allow participants to rest, recharge, and return with a fresh perspective. Despite the remote charm, connectivity is never an issue—seamless Wi-Fi and business-friendly amenities ensure that productivity doesn’t pause, even in paradise.

Cinnamon Dhonveli Maldives turns corporate travel into something memorable. Whether it’s a leadership retreat, a high-level conference, or an incentive escape, the resort offers a canvas for events that leave lasting impressions. Here, business goals are pursued in harmony with nature, creativity flows effortlessly, and the line between work and well-being fades.

Let your next MICE experience be more than a meeting—make it a journey worth sharing.

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