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Britain’s economy won’t reach pre-pandemic size for at least two years: Reuters Poll

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LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy will not fully recover from its current historic downturn for at least two years, a Reuters poll of economists found, but there is only a slim chance the Bank of England will use negative interest rates to boost the upswing.

Britain has suffered the highest death toll from the novel coronavirus in Europe, leading to criticism of the government’s response to the pandemic.

Last quarter, when a lockdown to quell the spread of the virus was at its tightest, the economy shrank a record 20.4%. But as many restrictions have been lifted, it was expected to expand 15.1% this quarter, the Aug. 14-19 poll showed.

“The severity of the slump was chiefly a by-product of the very long lockdown in the UK, necessitated by the government’s laissez-faire attitude in the early days of the pandemic, which meant the virus spread more widely than in other countries,” said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Earlier this month the BoE said the economy would not recover to its pre-pandemic size until the end of 2021, but 20 of 23 economists who responded to an extra question said it would be at least two years before that happened. Only three said within two years.

After contracting 9.7% this year – more than most of its peers and more than the 9.1% forecast last month – the economy will expand 6.2% in 2021, the poll of nearly 70 economists predicted. In a worst case scenario, it will contract 14.2% this year.

“Unlike BoE chief economist Andy Haldane, who thinks it is now time to see the economic glass as ‘half-full’, recent data outturns have made us more pessimistic about the lasting economic impact,” said Elizabeth Martins at HSBC.

To support the economy the government has ramped up spending to record amounts, the centrepiece of which was to pay 80% of wage bills if staff were put on leave rather than let go.

But that scheme is due to finish at the end of October, and all respondents to an extra question said the risk that the job market will worsen significantly before this year draws to a close was high or very high.

“Evidence of job losses is already mounting and the planned phasing out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme in the autumn will make things worse,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.

The economic slump has pushed firms to slash thousands of jobs. While the unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 3.9% in June it was seen peaking at 8.0% in the fourth quarter, the poll found.

Stay positive

For its part, the Bank of England has chopped borrowing costs to 0.10% and restarted asset purchases.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said that negative interest rates, used by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, were part of the Bank’s toolbox but that it did not have any plans to use them for now.

Bank Rate was expected to remain at 0.10% until 2023 at least, forecasts showed, and when asked about the chance of negative interest rates, economists gave just a 22.5% median probability. Only two economists polled had sub-zero rates as their base case scenario somewhere in the forecast horizon.

Meanwhile, Britain faces the added task of trying to agree a trade deal with the European Union before a transition period following its departure from the bloc finishes at the end of this year.

Reuters polls have consistently predicted that the two sides would agree a deal, and the latest survey gave only a 30% chance that no agreement would be reached before the transition period ends.

“The UK economy faces a trifecta of risks this winter, stemming from possibly renewed COVID-19-related restrictions, an economically difficult Brexit, and significant labour market weakness,” said Stefan Koopman at Rabobank.

Reporting and photo: Reuters

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Barcelo Nasandhura Malé to open in Q1 2025

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Barcelo Nasandhura Malé, the Maldives’ newest luxury destination, is set to open its doors in Q1 2025.

Located on the site of the former Nasandhura Palace Hotel, the property will become the largest hotel in the capital, Malé. With 136 elegantly designed rooms, including 95 with stunning ocean views, and 116 luxurious serviced apartments, Barcelo Nasandhura Malé promises a unique blend of sophistication, comfort, and convenience in the heart of this vibrant city.

Operated by the renowned Spanish hotel chain Barcelo Group, the hotel represents a significant expansion of the brand’s presence in the Maldives and beyond. Barcelo Group, known for its exceptional resorts, recently opened Barcelo Whale Lagoon Maldives in South Ari Atoll in August 2024, further solidifying its growing portfolio in the region. In addition to its Maldivian properties, Barcelo Group manages a range of high-profile hotels across the UAE, Thailand, and several European countries.

Barcelo Nasandhura Malé will feature an array of premium facilities, including four upscale dining outlets, a rooftop shisha bar, an oceanfront pool, a state-of-the-art gym, and a luxurious spa. The hotel will also boast 1,034 square meters of versatile MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) space, making it an ideal venue for corporate events and gatherings.

While some serviced apartments were initially intended for residential use, they will now be available for daily rental, offering guests enhanced flexibility and a wider range of accommodation options. Originally scheduled to open on December 1, 2024, the opening has been slightly delayed due to minor construction work. However, the team remains committed to ensuring Barcelo Nasandhura Malé is ready to welcome its first guests in Q1 2025.

Barcelo Hotel Group, awarded World’s Leading Hotel Management Company 2023 by the World Travel Awards, is the second-largest hotel chain in Spain and ranks among the 30 largest globally in terms of the number of rooms. Founded in 1931, this family-run organisation operates 280 four- and five-star city and holiday hotels, offering more than 62,000 rooms across 25 countries. The group markets its hotels under four distinct brands, each focused on providing diverse and memorable travel experiences.

Renowned for its commitment to excellence and sustainability, Barcelo Hotel Group delivers exceptional stays, seamlessly blending luxury, comfort, and environmental responsibility.

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Denise Hoefer brings world-class Padel to The Nautilus Maldives

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As part of its ‘Masters for Masters’ series, The Nautilus Maldives will host Denise Hoefer, Germany’s No. 1 padel player and one of the world’s top 50 most influential figures in the padel industry, for an exclusive Padel Masterclass from March 22 to 25, 2025. This exceptional event invites guests to enhance their padel skills under the expert guidance of a global champion, all set against the stunning backdrop of the Maldives’ Indian Ocean.

Padel, recognised as the world’s fastest-growing sport, has captured the hearts of 30 million enthusiasts globally, according to the International Padel Federation. This March, The Nautilus will provide a unique opportunity for guests to immerse themselves in this thrilling game during a four-day Padel Masterclass led by Denise Hoefer, Germany’s top-ranked female padel player and captain of the German national team. Participants will refine their techniques on The Nautilus’s state-of-the-art padel court, while experiencing the island’s signature blend of world-class coaching and timeless, unscripted hospitality.

The Padel Masterclass will feature a tailored mix of group and private sessions, catering to players of all levels. Younger participants will have the chance to join the Young Wonderers program, offering specially designed classes that introduce the sport in a fun and engaging way. After an energising day on the court, guests can unwind at Solasta Spa, where exclusive treatments by Maison Caulières—such as Spinal Connection Deep Tissue Healing, Volcanic Stone Therapy, and Warm Poultices—promise ultimate relaxation and rejuvenation. These tranquil spa experiences provide a perfect complement to the day’s dynamic activities, leaving participants refreshed and revitalised.

With just 26 ultra-luxury houses and residences, The Nautilus offers an intimate sanctuary within the Baa Atoll, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. Surrounded by powder-soft white sands, vibrant coral reefs, and crystal-clear waters, this private island retreat redefines bespoke hospitality. Every element is meticulously crafted to inspire, offering guests an unparalleled ultra-luxury experience focused on relaxation, renewal, and discovery. Whether honing padel skills or embracing the serenity of island life, The Nautilus stands as the ultimate destination for discerning travellers.

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BBM, Lifebuoy empowers hygiene practices among Maldivian children

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BBM, in collaboration with Lifebuoy, marked Global Handwashing Day 2024 with engaging activities aimed at instilling the habit of proper hand hygiene among Maldivian school children. Held on November 17th, the event continued the successful “H for Handwashing” campaign, blending education with creativity and fun.

The initiative featured info sessions, exciting games, and creative contests designed to teach children the importance of handwashing while giving them a hands-on understanding of the correct techniques. Activities ranged from reimagined board games like “Germs & Ladders” and “Handwashing Ludo” to interactive sessions that reinforced hygiene habits in an enjoyable way.

This campaign underscores BBM’s commitment to fostering healthier practices among the younger generation, contributing to a healthier and more hygienic Maldives. COO of BBM, A.V.S. Subrahmanyam, emphasised, “At BBM, we believe that empowering the next generation with the knowledge and tools for better hygiene practices is vital for building a resilient and healthy community. We are proud to continue our efforts in collaboration with partners like Lifebuoy.”

Adding to this, Muksith Hussain, Head of Retail Sales at BBM, shared, “Reaching children through such innovative initiatives helps us lay the foundation for a healthier tomorrow. We are thrilled to see the enthusiasm and participation of these young minds in learning the importance of hygiene.”

The event also saw valuable support from the Maldivian Red Crescent (MRC), whose contributions enriched the experience for the children. BBM expressed gratitude for MRC’s involvement, as their efforts played a key role in making the event impactful and memorable.

Through campaigns like this, BBM aims to nurture a lifelong habit of handwashing, creating a brighter and healthier future for the Maldives.

Let’s keep the spirit alive—join the Handwashing Revolution with BBM and Lifebuoy!

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