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Euro zone economic outlook steady but job recovery at high risk: Reuters Poll

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BENGALURU (Reuters) – A full bounceback from the euro zone’s deepest recession on record will take two years or more, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also said there is a high risk the job recovery underway reverses by the end of 2020.

Europe was badly hit earlier this year by the coronavirus pandemic, which has now infected more than 22 million people globally. But stringent lockdowns and contact tracing helped get the numbers down and allowed swift re-openings.

Along with trillions of euros’ worth of European Central Bank stimulus and a 750 billion euro European Union recovery fund that kicks in next year, sentiment has improved, and the economy is bouncing back along with the euro.

The consensus from the Aug 14-19 Reuters poll points to 8.1% growth this quarter compared with the previous one, easily the fastest on record, following a historic 12.1% contraction in Q2. That is unchanged from the July poll median.

In May, around the time lockdowns were lifted in most euro zone countries, the Q3 forecast was for 7.2% growth.

Quarterly growth will then slow sharply to 3.0% in Q4, slightly better than the 2.8% predicted last month and still a historically robust rate.

However, more than 70% of economists, or 25 of 35 who replied to an additional question, said it would take two or more years for euro zone GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. Ten respondents said within two years and none said within a year.

“Despite the recent recovery in economic indicators, the better-than-feared performance of labour markets and the recent agreement on the Recovery Fund, we still see various downside risks to the economic recovery,” said Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.

“Although there have been encouraging reports with regard to a potential (COVID-19) vaccine by early 2021, as long there isn’t any effective one, containment measures will have to be kept in place regardless. A second series of partial lockdowns could have some serious economic effects.”

Around three-quarters of common contributors to this month’s and last month’s poll either lowered their GDP forecasts for the remainder of the year or kept them unchanged.

Asked to predict their worst-case scenario, the median response was 4.0% this quarter, much better than the 2.0% forecast in last month’s poll. But the worst-case view points to a 2.0% contraction in Q4, the most pessimistic yet for that period.

On an annual basis, the economy was expected to shrink 8.2% this year and then grow 5.5% next, or -10.3% this year and no growth in 2021 on a worst-case basis.

Much will depend on how the job market performs from now on.

Thanks to wide-reaching government furlough programmes that have helped businesses retain workers, euro zone unemployment has risen only slightly to 7.8% in July from 7.2% in February.

But about 85% of economists in the poll, 28 of 33 who responded to an additional question, said the risk the job recovery reverses by year-end was high, including four who said very high.

“Euro zone unemployment almost looks like a Cinderella story. With barely any increase in unemployment, it is currently the belle of the global labour market ball, at least compared to many other developed economies,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist, eurozone and global head of macro at ING.

“When the clock strikes midnight, however, and short-term work schemes come to an end, the fairy tale is unlikely to continue. We expect a second wave of job losses towards the end of the year and going into 2021.”

The jobless rate is expected to rise to 8.9% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021, according to a July Reuters poll.

Inflation was not expected to touch the ECB’s target of below, but close to 2% through to 2022, according to the latest August survey. The ECB’s key interest rates are expected to stay on hold through the forecast horizon.

Reporting and photo: Reuters

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Barcelo Nasandhura Malé to open in Q1 2025

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Barcelo Nasandhura Malé, the Maldives’ newest luxury destination, is set to open its doors in Q1 2025.

Located on the site of the former Nasandhura Palace Hotel, the property will become the largest hotel in the capital, Malé. With 136 elegantly designed rooms, including 95 with stunning ocean views, and 116 luxurious serviced apartments, Barcelo Nasandhura Malé promises a unique blend of sophistication, comfort, and convenience in the heart of this vibrant city.

Operated by the renowned Spanish hotel chain Barcelo Group, the hotel represents a significant expansion of the brand’s presence in the Maldives and beyond. Barcelo Group, known for its exceptional resorts, recently opened Barcelo Whale Lagoon Maldives in South Ari Atoll in August 2024, further solidifying its growing portfolio in the region. In addition to its Maldivian properties, Barcelo Group manages a range of high-profile hotels across the UAE, Thailand, and several European countries.

Barcelo Nasandhura Malé will feature an array of premium facilities, including four upscale dining outlets, a rooftop shisha bar, an oceanfront pool, a state-of-the-art gym, and a luxurious spa. The hotel will also boast 1,034 square meters of versatile MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) space, making it an ideal venue for corporate events and gatherings.

While some serviced apartments were initially intended for residential use, they will now be available for daily rental, offering guests enhanced flexibility and a wider range of accommodation options. Originally scheduled to open on December 1, 2024, the opening has been slightly delayed due to minor construction work. However, the team remains committed to ensuring Barcelo Nasandhura Malé is ready to welcome its first guests in Q1 2025.

Barcelo Hotel Group, awarded World’s Leading Hotel Management Company 2023 by the World Travel Awards, is the second-largest hotel chain in Spain and ranks among the 30 largest globally in terms of the number of rooms. Founded in 1931, this family-run organisation operates 280 four- and five-star city and holiday hotels, offering more than 62,000 rooms across 25 countries. The group markets its hotels under four distinct brands, each focused on providing diverse and memorable travel experiences.

Renowned for its commitment to excellence and sustainability, Barcelo Hotel Group delivers exceptional stays, seamlessly blending luxury, comfort, and environmental responsibility.

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Denise Hoefer brings world-class Padel to The Nautilus Maldives

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As part of its ‘Masters for Masters’ series, The Nautilus Maldives will host Denise Hoefer, Germany’s No. 1 padel player and one of the world’s top 50 most influential figures in the padel industry, for an exclusive Padel Masterclass from March 22 to 25, 2025. This exceptional event invites guests to enhance their padel skills under the expert guidance of a global champion, all set against the stunning backdrop of the Maldives’ Indian Ocean.

Padel, recognised as the world’s fastest-growing sport, has captured the hearts of 30 million enthusiasts globally, according to the International Padel Federation. This March, The Nautilus will provide a unique opportunity for guests to immerse themselves in this thrilling game during a four-day Padel Masterclass led by Denise Hoefer, Germany’s top-ranked female padel player and captain of the German national team. Participants will refine their techniques on The Nautilus’s state-of-the-art padel court, while experiencing the island’s signature blend of world-class coaching and timeless, unscripted hospitality.

The Padel Masterclass will feature a tailored mix of group and private sessions, catering to players of all levels. Younger participants will have the chance to join the Young Wonderers program, offering specially designed classes that introduce the sport in a fun and engaging way. After an energising day on the court, guests can unwind at Solasta Spa, where exclusive treatments by Maison Caulières—such as Spinal Connection Deep Tissue Healing, Volcanic Stone Therapy, and Warm Poultices—promise ultimate relaxation and rejuvenation. These tranquil spa experiences provide a perfect complement to the day’s dynamic activities, leaving participants refreshed and revitalised.

With just 26 ultra-luxury houses and residences, The Nautilus offers an intimate sanctuary within the Baa Atoll, a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. Surrounded by powder-soft white sands, vibrant coral reefs, and crystal-clear waters, this private island retreat redefines bespoke hospitality. Every element is meticulously crafted to inspire, offering guests an unparalleled ultra-luxury experience focused on relaxation, renewal, and discovery. Whether honing padel skills or embracing the serenity of island life, The Nautilus stands as the ultimate destination for discerning travellers.

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BBM, Lifebuoy empowers hygiene practices among Maldivian children

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BBM, in collaboration with Lifebuoy, marked Global Handwashing Day 2024 with engaging activities aimed at instilling the habit of proper hand hygiene among Maldivian school children. Held on November 17th, the event continued the successful “H for Handwashing” campaign, blending education with creativity and fun.

The initiative featured info sessions, exciting games, and creative contests designed to teach children the importance of handwashing while giving them a hands-on understanding of the correct techniques. Activities ranged from reimagined board games like “Germs & Ladders” and “Handwashing Ludo” to interactive sessions that reinforced hygiene habits in an enjoyable way.

This campaign underscores BBM’s commitment to fostering healthier practices among the younger generation, contributing to a healthier and more hygienic Maldives. COO of BBM, A.V.S. Subrahmanyam, emphasised, “At BBM, we believe that empowering the next generation with the knowledge and tools for better hygiene practices is vital for building a resilient and healthy community. We are proud to continue our efforts in collaboration with partners like Lifebuoy.”

Adding to this, Muksith Hussain, Head of Retail Sales at BBM, shared, “Reaching children through such innovative initiatives helps us lay the foundation for a healthier tomorrow. We are thrilled to see the enthusiasm and participation of these young minds in learning the importance of hygiene.”

The event also saw valuable support from the Maldivian Red Crescent (MRC), whose contributions enriched the experience for the children. BBM expressed gratitude for MRC’s involvement, as their efforts played a key role in making the event impactful and memorable.

Through campaigns like this, BBM aims to nurture a lifelong habit of handwashing, creating a brighter and healthier future for the Maldives.

Let’s keep the spirit alive—join the Handwashing Revolution with BBM and Lifebuoy!

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