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Maldives tourist arrivals may see 74 per cent drop in 2020, take two years to recover: study
Tourist arrivals to the Maldives may fall as much as 74 per cent this year, with arrival numbers from many major source markets taking at least two years to recover, a study presented to the country’s lawmakers showed Monday.
In its study that surveyed 64 tourist establishments across the country, The Maldives National University presented two scenarios for tourism recovery after the reopening of borders on July 15.
The best case scenario puts the number of arrivals at 98,169 in July, 103,513 in August, 87,378 in September, 105,437 in October, 102,461 in November and 127,293 in December, with arrivals totalling 1.007 million this year. It will still be a 41 per cent year-over-year decline.
In the worst case — and the most likely — scenario, Maldives is expected to welcome only 10,595 tourists in July, 11,172 in August, 9,430 in September, 11,379 in October, 11,058 in November and 13,738 in December. Arrivals will likely total 450,134 — a 74 per cent decline from a year ago.
The most optimistic predictions for next year show arrival numbers reaching 1.2 million, but the most likely scenario sees arrivals topping at just 641,921.
The study, commissioned by the parliament, looked at top seven pre-pandemic source markets: China, India, Italy, Germany, the UK and France. China and Britain may be the slowest markets to recover, the study said, citing the sudden and deeper shock to their economies.
But the study stressed that demand in almost all major source markets will likely see a sharp uptick after the border reopening, with a positive growth outlook for the coming two years.
The coronavirus outbreak has hit the Maldivian economy hard, as travel restrictions and other preventive measures affect the country’s lucrative tourism industry, which contributes the bulk of the island nation’s state revenue and foreign reserves.
Before the pandemic, the government had been bullish about tourism prospects, targeting two million, high-spending holidaymakers this year after last year’s record 1.7 million.
However, only 382,760 tourists visited the Maldives before the country closed its borders on March 27. It was a 40.8 per cent decline over the 646,092 that visited the Maldives from January to March last year.
With arrival numbers falling, several resorts across the Maldives had been closed.
Tourism has been the bedrock of the Maldives’ economic success. The $5 billion-dollar economy grew by 6.7 per cent in 2018 with tourism generating 60 per cent of foreign income.
However, the government is at present projecting a possible 13 per cent economic contraction this year — an estimated $778 million hit.
On March 8, Maldives reported its first cases of the novel coronavirus, as two hotel employees tested positive for Covid-19 at a luxury resort in the archipelago.
Eighteen more cases — all foreigners working or staying resorts and liveaboard vessels except five Maldivians who had returned from abroad — were later identified.
A six-case cluster of locals, detected in capital Male on April 15, confirmed community transmission of the coronavirus. Several more clusters have since been identified, bringing the total number of confirmed case in the Maldives to 2,491.
Twelve deaths have been reported and 2,113 have made full recoveries.
The Maldives announced a state of public health emergency on March 12, the first such declaration under a recent public health protection law.
The public health emergency declaration allowed the government to introduce a series of unprecedented restrictive and social distancing measures, including stay-at-home orders in capital Male and its suburbs, a ban on inter-island transport and public gatherings across the country, and a nationwide closing of government offices, schools, colleges and universities.
Non-essential services and public places in the capital such as gyms, cinemas and parks were also shut.
Restaurants and cafes in the capital were asked to stop dine-in service and switch to takeaway and delivery.
A nationwide shutdown of all guesthouses, city hotels and spa facilities located on inhabited islands was also ordered.
These measures allowed authorities to contain the outbreak.
The restrictions are now being eased in phases, with the third phase measures now active.
Nova Maldives will renew its partnership with PADI this September to co-host Project AWARE Week from 16 to 20 September 2026.
Organised by the resort’s marine team, the programme will give guests, from first-time snorkellers to experienced divers, opportunities to combine marine wildlife observation with practical conservation activities. The initiative is intended to turn time spent in the ocean into an educational experience while encouraging greater awareness of marine conservation.
This year’s AWARE Week coincides with PADI’s 60th anniversary and Nova Maldives’ fourth year of operation in South Ari Atoll. Now in its eighth global edition, PADI AWARE Week has developed into a citizen science movement within the diving community and has helped rescue more than 41,000 entangled marine animals to date.
Through its continued participation, Nova Maldives aims to encourage guests to become ocean advocates and remain engaged with marine conservation beyond their stay.
Guests staying at Nova during AWARE Week will be able to participate in a programme designed for different levels of ocean experience. Activities will include:
- Ocean immersion and storytelling: Sessions inspired by Blue Planet and other ocean documentaries, highlighting the diversity and vulnerability of marine life.
- Dive Against Debris: Underwater clean-up dives in the resort’s lagoon, during which participants will remove plastic and other waste before recording the findings in PADI AWARE’s global database.
- Whale shark snorkelling: Guided encounters that will allow guests to swim alongside whale sharks in the open waters of South Ari Atoll.
- Manta ray and turtle-spotting excursions: Guided boat trips to feeding and nesting areas where manta rays and turtles can be observed in their natural habitats.
- Coral restoration workshops: Practical sessions introducing guests to coral planting and the resort’s ongoing reef regeneration work.
“Some of the most meaningful work happens when you show up year after year. Four years into Nova’s story, we’ve learned that the health of the reef tells us a great deal about the impact we’re making, and that the guests who choose to return aren’t just here for the view,” said Abdulla Aboobakuru, General Manager of Nova Maldives.
“They’re here because Nova reflects something they already care about, including care for the ocean, a sense of community and a more thoughtful way of experiencing the places we visit. That’s what we hope Nova can inspire in new and returning guests alike: less a destination, more a calling.”
The resort’s marine conservation work continues throughout the year. Its coral nursery contains a growing collection of metal frames holding individually secured coral fragments, which are later transplanted onto the house reef. Guests are regularly invited to participate in the planting process, while the marine team monitors the young coral colonies as they develop.
Nova Maldives also maintains partnerships with the Maldives Whale Shark Research Programme and Manta Trust. The resort is accredited as a Responsible Manta Tourism Operator, with the partnerships supporting its year-round approach to marine conservation.
Renowned for its marine life and underwater experiences, Sun Siyam Vilu Reef, part of Sun Siyam’s Privé Collection, has been named Best House Reef at the Travel Trade Maldives (TTM) Awards 2026.
The award recognises the resort’s marine environment, which is accessible directly from its beaches and overwater villas. The annual TTM Awards and Gala brings together travel professionals and hoteliers from across the archipelago to recognise achievements within the Maldivian hospitality industry.
The island’s coral reef is home to marine species including resident sea turtles, reef sharks, tropical fish and eagle rays. Guests can explore the reef through guided excursions led by the resort’s resident marine experts, customised scuba-diving experiences and coral restoration initiatives designed to support the long-term preservation of the marine environment.
“Our reef is the living soul of Sun Siyam Vilu Reef, shaping every visitor’s journey from the moment they step into our turquoise lagoon,” said Masdhooq Saeed, Cluster General Manager. “To be named the Maldives’ Best House Reef is an immense honour, strengthening our commitment to nurturing this remarkable marine sanctuary so our guests can keep discovering its quiet magic beneath the surface.”
Travellers seeking underwater experiences can book directly with the resort to access exclusive benefits and guided marine excursions.
Sun Siyam Vilu Reef, part of the Privé Collection within the House of Siyam, has announced its festive programme, “Eutopia: The Infinite Bloom”, which will run from 22 December 2026 to 7 January 2027.
The seasonal programme features activities and experiences for guests of all ages. Dining will take centre stage with Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve gala dinners by the water, exclusive Chef’s Table experiences and seafood barbecues on the beach.
The evening entertainment programme will include live acoustic performances, island DJ sets, aerial dance shows and Maldivian cultural performances.
During the day, guests will be able to explore the resort’s lagoon through activities such as house reef snorkelling, sunset Jet Car rides and sandbank excursions. The Spa will offer wellness rituals and couples’ therapies, while younger guests can take part in gingerbread decorating, a fashion show and Santa’s arrival on the beach.
“Eutopia is our invitation to celebrate and embrace nature, meaningful moments, and the relaxed luxury that defines Sun Siyam Vilu Reef through our festivities,” said Masdhooq Saeed, Cluster General Manager.
“From unforgettable ocean adventures to starlit beach celebrations, every experience has been thoughtfully designed to create lasting memories that will continue to flourish long after the season ends.”
The programme will culminate with a New Year’s Eve celebration on the beach on 31 December, featuring live music, midnight toasts and a fireworks display over the water.
The resort’s festive programme is available to view online, with bookings open for stays between 22 December 2026 and 7 January 2027.
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